Artificial intelligence effectively predicts the COVID-19 death rate in different UK cities

The emergence of a new variant of SARS-CoV-2 in the UK that is spreading more rapidly has raised great concerns not only in the UK but also whole Europe and other parts of the globe. The newly identified variant of SARS-CoV-2 that is reported to be more contagious has prompted many countries to ban travel to and from the UK. As of April 2, 2021, nearly 4.35 million confirmed cases of coronavirus (COVID-19) have been reported in the UK out of which more than 127,000 people have died. These numbers reveal a need for predictor models to assist with management, prevention, and treatment decisions. Here, we presented an Artificial Intelligence (AI) model to predict the death rate in various cities of the United Kingdom. Training and testing the model using the data available on the European data portal showed promising results with predicted R2 = 0.88. © 2022 - IOS Press. All rights reserved.

Thyroid dysfunction following vaccination with COVID-19 vaccines: a basic review of the preliminary evidence.

PURPOSE: The safety and efficacy of the several types of COVID-19 vaccines, including mRNA-based, viral vector-based, and inactivated vaccines, have been approved by WHO. The vaccines can confer protection against severe SARS-CoV-2 infection through induction of the anti-spike protein neutralizing antibodies. However, SARS-CoV-2 vaccines have been associated with very rare complications, such as thyroid disorders. This review was conducted to highlight main features of thyroid abnormalities following COVID-19 vaccination. METHODS: A comprehensive search within electronic databases was performed to collect reports of thyroid disorders after vaccination with COVID-19 vaccines. RESULTS: Among 83 reported cases including in this review, the most cases of thyroid abnormalities were observed after vaccination with mRNA-based vaccines (68.7%), followed by viral vector vaccines (15.7%) and 14.5% cases following inactivated vaccines. Subacute thyroiditis (SAT) was the most common COVID-19 vaccination-related thyroid disease, accounting for 60.2% of all cases, followed by Graves' disease (GD) with 25.3%. Moreover, some cases with focal painful thyroiditis (3.6%), silent thyroiditis (3.6%), concurrent GD and SAT (2.4%), thyroid eye disease (1.2%), overt hypothyroidism (1.2%), atypical subacute thyroiditis (1.2%), and painless thyroiditis with TPP (1.2%) were also reported. Overall, in 58.0% of SAT cases and in 61.9% of GD cases, the onset of the symptoms occurred following the first vaccine dose with a median of 10.0 days (ranged: 3-21 days) and 10.0 days (ranged: 1-60 days) after vaccination, respectively. Moreover, 40.0% of SAT patients and 38.1% of GD patients developed the symptoms after the second dose with a median of 10.5 days (ranged: 0.5-37 days) and 14.0 days (ranged: 2-35 days) after vaccination, respectively. CONCLUSION: Fortunately, almost all cases with COVID-19 vaccination-associated thyroid dysfunctions had a favorable outcome following therapy. The benefits of COVID-19 vaccinations in terms of terminating the pandemic and/or reducing mortality rates can exceed any risk of infrequent complications such as a transient thyroid malfunction.

Health care policy makers' response to COVID-19 pandemic;pros and cons of "flattening the curve" from the "selective pressure" point of view: a review

COVID-19, a respiratory infection caused by the virus SARS-CoV-2, causes a variety of symptoms in infected people. We have recently addressed our concerns over unintentional "Directed Accelerated Evolution" of the SARS-CoV-2 and introduced a modified treatment method for ARDS associated with COVID-19. COVID-19 outbreak could last for a long time in communities. Due to growing requests for medical equipment such as ventilators and ICU beds, "flattening the epidemic curve" has been considered as an effective strategy to adjust the level of health care demand to potential capacity of the system. In this paper, we compare possible outcomes of "Without Precaution" and "With Precaution" epidemic models. When there are no precautions, a higher number of people would be infected. RNA viruses such as SARS-CoV-2 have extremely high mutation rates. Accordingly, the combination of a higher number of infected people and any effort for inactivation of the viruses is expected to exert a strong selective pressure on SARS-CoV-2 that can lead to more mutations. These mutations can be either pathogenicity attenuating mutations (PAMs) or pathogenicity promoting mutations (PPMs). On the other hand, when flattening strategy is used, the number of infected people will be lower than the previous model, but both type of mutations may occur, although with lower frequency. Although the occurrence of PAMs helps the development of herd immunity, possible occurrence of PPMs needs serious tracking, especially in patients with severe COVID-19, to prevent new endemic with more virulent mutant viruses.

Can Reactivation of SARS-CoV-2 Decrease the Chance of Success of Future Deep Space Missions?

Korean CDC experts first reported the likelihood of reactivation in COVIOD-19 patients. They hypothesized that like childhood chicken pox infections which lie dormant for tens of years only to cause shingles in seniors, SARS-CoV-2 can reactivate. However, as testing for the virus had been flawed at that time, U.S. infectious disease experts were skeptical about the reports of second COVID-19 infections. New reports have addressed the urgent need to conduct large-scale studies to better understand the potential recurrence of SARS-CoV-2 in COVID-19 patients. Moreover, some case studies show possible reactivation of SARS-CoV-2 in a family cluster. Given this consideration, major space stressors such as microgravity and space radiation and their interactions which are not fully known, so far can increase the risk of reactivation of SARS-CoV-2 in future space missions, an event that can easily impact the success of any space mission. Since about 80% of infected people are either asymptomatic or show only mild symptoms, in a near future, it would be likely that astronauts who start their mission even after complex medical examinations, experience reactivation of the virus during their mission. Moreover, we have previously addressed the potential higher fatality of COVID-19 infections in space due to 1) uselessness of social distancing due to microgravity 2) immune system dysregulation 3) possibly higher mutation rates of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) as a RNA virus 4) higher risk of reactivation of the virus 5) existence of strong selective pressure and 6) decreased maximum oxygen uptake.

Can Reactivation of SARS-CoV-2 Decrease the Chance of Success of Future Deep Space Missions?

Korean CDC experts first reported the likelihood of reactivation in COVIOD-19 patients. They hypothesized that like childhood chicken pox infections which lie dormant for tens of years only to cause shingles in seniors, SARS-CoV-2 can reactivate. However, as testing for the virus had been flawed at that time, U.S. infectious disease experts were skeptical about the reports of second COVID-19 infections. New reports have addressed the urgent need to conduct large-scale studies to better understand the potential recurrence of SARS-CoV-2 in COVID-19 patients. Moreover, some case studies show possible reactivation of SARS-CoV-2 in a family cluster. Given this consideration, major space stressors such as microgravity and space radiation and their interactions which are not fully known, so far can increase the risk of reactivation of SARS-CoV-2 in future space missions, an event that can easily impact the success of any space mission. Since about 80% of infected people are either asymptomatic or show only mild symptoms, in a near future, it would be likely that astronauts who start their mission even after complex medical examinations, experience reactivation of the virus during their mission. Moreover, we have previously addressed the potential higher fatality of COVID-19 infections in space due to 1) uselessness of social distancing due to microgravity 2) immune system dysregulation 3) possibly higher mutation rates of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) as a RNA virus 4) higher risk of reactivation of the virus 5) existence of strong selective pressure and 6) decreased maximum oxygen uptake. © 2021 IEEE.

How Our Neanderthal Genes Affect the COVID-19 Mortality: Iran and Mongolia, Two Countries with the Same SARS-CoV-2 Mutation Cluster but Different Mortality Rates.

Neanderthal genes possibly gave modern human protection against viruses. However, a recent study revealed that that a long sequence of DNA that is inherited from our Neanderthal ancestors can be linked to severe COVID-19 infection and hospitalization. Substantial evidence now indicates that our genetic background may be involved in the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 and the rapid progress of COVID-19 in some infected individuals. Although both morbidity and mortality of COVID-19 strongly depends on key factors such as age and co-existing health conditions, potential classes of human genomic variants possibly affect the likelihood of SARS-CoV-2 infection and its progress. Despite Iran and Mongolia seem to share the same SARS-CoV-2 mutation cluster, the COVID-19 mortality rates in these two countries are drastically different. While the population in Iran is 25.8 times higher than that of Mongolia, the number of confirmed cases is 1170 times higher. Moreover, the death rate shows a drastic difference. Since Neanderthals interbred with modern humans in Middle East between 47,000 and 65,000 years ago before going extinct 40,000 years ago, some Iranians have much more Neanderthal DNA than other people. Although neither genetic background nor environmental factors alone can determine our risk of developing severe COVID-19, our genes clearly affect both the development and progression of infectious diseases including COVID-19. Given these considerations, we believe that these great differences, at least to some extent, can be due to the proportion of Neanderthal genes among the people of these two countries.

Unethical not to Investigate Radiotherapy for COVID-19.

The primum non nocere letter by Boon et al. urged caution and careful examination of the evidence and logistics of low-dose radiotherapy in COVID-19 patients. This is exactly what was requested in March and what has occurred since late April 2020 when the first phase I/II clinical trial was approved at the Winship Cancer Institute, Emory University Hospital. The preprint of day-7 interim results by the investigators concluded, "In a small pilot trial of 5 oxygen-dependent patients with COVID-19 pneumonia, low-dose whole-lung radiation led to rapid improvement in clinical status, encephalopathy, and radiographic infiltrates without acute toxicity or worsening the cytokine storm. Low-dose whole-lung radiation appears to be safe, shows early promise of efficacy, and warrants larger prospective trials." Preliminary results from another clinical trial gave similar results. In conclusion, the authors believe it would be unethical not to investigate radiotherapy as a potential remedy against COVID-19 induced pneumonia.

Why can COVID-19 fatality in space be significantly higher than on Earth?

Astronauts are exposed to a wide variety of stressors ranging from radiation and microgravity to persistent fluids shifts, circadian shifts and the psychological stress of prolonged isolation and confinement. On deep space missions, beyond the range of the Earth's magnetosphere, ionizing radiation may increase oxidative stress and DNA damage, immune system dysregulation and alter the effectiveness of the cellular defense mechanisms. By reviewing the health problems reported by astronauts participated in previous space missions, it is evident that viral infections are not rare in space. Recent reports suggest that COVID-19 can last for a long time in communities. Although NASA implements countermeasures designed to limit crew illness during space missions such as a pre-flight quarantine, it is not clear whether an outbreak can be prevented. Currently, it is not likely that astronauts could get a viral infection, but the consequences of potential lifethreatening viral diseases such as COVID-19 should be better characterized. In this paper we discuss why COVID-19 fatality in space might be significantly higher than on the Earth. The reasons for such an increased risk include 1) uselessness of social distancing due to microgravity 2) immune system dysregulation 3) possibly higher mutation rates of RNA viruses such as the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) 4) existence of strong selective pressure and 5) decreased maximum oxygen uptake. Given these considerations, the combined effects of microgravity, space radiation (and possibly other major space stressors) on the immune system of astronauts exposed to SARS-CoV-2 and possible interactions of the virus, space stressors and host should be carefully investigated.